IOC To Announce 2018 Olympic Bid Short-list Tuesday – GamesBids.com Predictions

On Tuesday in Lausanne, Switzerland, the International Olympic Committee will release a report from their evaluation commission measuring the viability of three bids for the 2018 Olympic Winter Games. Based on the report, the Executive Committee will determine which of the applicant cities will move on to the candidate phase that will end July 6, 2011 with the election of the host city.

The Candidature Acceptance Report represents a technical evaluation of the 2016 bids based on their questionnaire responses and other data acquired by the IOC. In the past, the IOC has set a benchmark score and they have short-listed each bid that surpasses this score, however they are not committed to this model. Additional bids may also be included at the discretion of the evaluation commission. There is no specific number of bids to be included on the list but typically three to five are chosen to move to the next phase.

For 2018, the number of applicants is the lowest in several years. Only three – Annecy France, Munich Germany and PyeongChang, South Korea – are under consideration, diminishing the need for the IOC to trim the list further. Instead, evaluators will likely include each bid that can demonstrate the minimal requirements to host the Games.

At 1:30pm local time is Lausanne, the short-list will be revealed. These bids will continue their campaigns and provide the IOC with full candidature files, or bid books, on January 11, 2011. A final evaluation report will be published based on city visits and other information submitted and the evaluation commission will choose which bids to put on the ballot when the final vote takes place July 6, 2011 in Durban, South Africa.

This is how GamesBids.com rates the chances of each bid. The bids are color coded and ranked in confidence order.

GREEN = WILL BE ACCEPTED
AMBER = MAY OR MAY NOT BE SELECTED
RED = WILL NOT BE SELECTED

PyeongChang (Green)
PyeongChang has been runner-up in the previous two Olympic Winter Games bids – receiving exactly 100 votes on two final ballots. It is already clear that the voting IOC members are confident that the Korean city is well qualified to host the Games. The Korean bid has improved this time around with additional world class venues already constructed; the vision of a more compact venue plan – and four more years of experience.

Last week Jin-Sun Kim ended his role as co-chairman of the bid – he had been Chairman for both previous bids – but Yangho Cho, Chairman of Korean Air, stepped up as Chairman and CEO for PyeongChang.

Expect PyeongChang to qualify for the short-list and receive high technical scores.

Munich (Green)
This is Munich’s first Winter Games bid, but the 1972 Summer Games host city is well organized and has developed compelling plans.A winter sports powerhouse, the German government is solidly behind this bid and has much to offer in regards to infrastructure, facilities and experience. Organizers have built a solid team led by figure skating legend and bid Chairperson Katarina Witt, and Olympic skier, sports entrepreneur and bid CEO Willy Bogner.Munich will likely receive an excellent evaluation report and will be included on the short-list.

Annecy (Green)
While Annecy has what it takes to host an Olympic Games; the French city will have to work hard to convince the IOC that it is the right choice for the IOC in 2018. Only 100 km away from the 1992 host city of Albertville, IOC evaluators will already know about the excellent facilities in the Alps and the accommodations and hospitality the region has to offer.

The first Winter Games were held in Chamonix in 1924, so this would be the third Games in the region – will the IOC want to return again – and so soon?

Annecy will likely make the short-list and receive more than the minimum benchmark score required by the IOC, but exceptional marketing and lobbying efforts will be required to give IOC members a compelling reason to return to France.