From SportAccord Convention in Quebec City, Canada – This Wednesday May 23 at SportAccord in Quebec City, Canada, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) will release its Candidature Acceptance Report that represents a technical evaluation of the 2020 Olympic bids based on questionnaire responses and other data acquired by the IOC.
In the past, the IOC has set a benchmark score and they have short-listed each bid that surpasses this score, however the Executive Committee is not committed to this model and can include or exclude bids at its discretion. In fact for 2016, Doha scored above the benchmark and had a higher score than eventual bid winner Rio de Janeiro, but was excluded from the list due to planned Games dates outside of the acceptable window.
There is no specific number of bids to be included on the list but expect anywhere from three to all five making it through to the final election for this bid. For the previous two Summer Games campaigns, there were five accepted bids for 2012 and four for 2016 after Doha was excluded. The past two Winter Games campaigns included three bids each.
The IOC might be inclined to accept all five bids in order to mitigate risks and keep options open for the final 16 months of the campaign. A bid from Rome already dropped out of the race due to austerity measures and a financial crisis in Italy – and Spain has its own financial crisis putting Madrid’s candidacy at risk. Doha is proposing Games dates that ultimately may not work for IOC members and Turkey’s bid for the Euro Football Championships the same year might complicate Istanbul’s chances.
At 18:30 local time, the IOC will announce the list of accepted candidates, and these bids will continue their campaigns and provide the IOC with full candidature files, or bid books, in January 2013. A final evaluation report will be published based on city visits and other information submitted and the evaluation commission will choose which bids to put on the final ballot when the final vote takes place September 7, 2013 at the IOC Session in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
This is how GamesBids.com rates the chances of each bid. The bids are color coded and ranked in confidence order.
GREEN = WILL BE ACCEPTED
AMBER = MAY OR MAY NOT BE SELECTED
RED = WILL NOT BE SELECTED
Tokyo (Green)
Tokyo will easily make it though to the final ballot. Based on the same strong, city-centre plan that made the Japanese city a close contender for the 2016 Games and coupled with strong financial backing – Tokyo is likely the IOC’s contingency in this race in case the other bids don’t quite pan out.
There are concerns, however, that there may be little interest in returning to East Asia only two years after the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Games; and there are further questions about organizing the Games while recovery efforts are still underway following the 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan.
Madrid (Green)
Experience gained from the 2012 and 2016 bids will be advantageous to the Madrid bid team who have already forged strong relationships with the IOC. Madrid measured-up well technically in both previous campaigns and finished second in voting for 2016 – so there is no doubt the Spanish bid will be included on the list this time.
But the IOC will be watching with caution – due to austerity measures Madrid already cut its bid budget markedly as compared with the previous bid and might be subject to additional domestic scrutiny adding risk for the organization.
Istanbul (Green)
This is Istanbul’s fifth bid in six campaigns and it will be Turkey’s best chance yet at hosting the Olympic Games. The unique plan for a Games that will straddle two continents may provide a compelling narrative for voting IOC members. The region’s economic growth is far outpacing that of the European rivals and the inclusion of a Muslim nation may be a strategic opportunity for the IOC.
Istanbul will be included on the shortlist despite Turkey’s interest in bidding for the 2020 UEFA Euro 2020 as well. Since there are other interested bidders for the Football Championships, that host won’t be chosen until after the IOC makes its decision about the Olympics
Doha (Amber)
Whether Doha is included on the short list, or not, the decision will be controversial. When the city was left off of the list for 2016, Doha leaders accused the IOC of closing the door on the Middle East due to the unaccommodating climate. Doha had planned the Games for October to avoid the heat – outside of the accepted window.
For 2020, the IOC asked to be notified in advance if the planned dates would be non-traditional. Doha complied and was given permission to apply with autumn dates. But this doesn’t mean that the IOC Executive board will approve the plan that will conflict with international sport and television schedules.
Additionally, Qatar was awarded the 2022 FIFA World Cup in a controversial decision and the IOC might want to stay clear of both conflicts with the World Cup and any perception that corruption might be involved in the Olympic decision.
Doha will have a technical plan that will put the bid over the benchmark and in a good position, putting the city on the short list. However, the Executive Committee could re-iterate its decision for 2016 and hold back Doha once again.
Baku (Amber)
Baku is a progressive city in a rapidly developing nation and has created big plans for 2020 in an effort to make the city a tourist destination. Azerbaijan has the finances, the plan, and the drive to mount a strong Olympic bid campaign.
Despite this being Baku’s second consecutive bid, the city still lacks the experience that the other bids already have and this might leave the city below the technical benchmark. The bid is likely a bit ahead of its time and will probably be better qualified for the short list once some of the projects underway in the city are completed.
But Baku could still be added to the short list if the IOC wants to keep its options open in this extremely volatile race. When there were only three bidders for the 2018 Winter Games and the bid from Annecy, France fell below the benchmark – instead of eliminating the bid, the IOC gave officials advice on how to improve and then accepted the city into the race.
With only five cities in the hunt, Baku might be given a similar opportunity.
