Thursday marks the deadline the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has set for national Olympic committees (NOC) to submit applications for cities wishing to bid for the 2020 Olympic Games. Shortly thereafter, the IOC will release the list of cities that have applied.
So far we know that Rome, Madrid, Tokyo, Istanbul and Doha will bid. Why? Because they’ve publicly announced their intentions to send applications to the IOC.
But the IOC collects all of the applications and puts them in a safe place until September 1st, the deadline, and doesn’t reveal what cities have sent them in. They won’t – company policy. So there is no way of knowing how many bids have actually been submitted at this point unless you are deep inside IOC headquarters in Lausanne.
So what if an NOC that we don’t already know about has already submitted the required paperwork to the IOC? Why wouldn’t that bid city make themselves known?
When a city is going to apply for the Games, it is usually widely publicized for several reasons – they may need to compete with other domestic applicants, they may need to face a local referendum or obtain public funding or campaign for local or federal support. It’s also valuable to get a head start generating public support for the bid so it will get favourable results when the IOC polls the population during the evaluation process.
But if bidding were a last-minute decision, or if a city wasn’t prepared enough to “go public” and didn’t need to do any of the above, perhaps there would be no public announcement. Or, there may be strategic reasons why you would want to keep your bidding intentions secret.
Shortly before the deadline to submit bids for the 2010 Olympic Winter Games, it seemed that IOC President Jacques Rogge erred by telling a reporter that “on my desk today I found a bid from Harbin, China.”
He probably wasn’t supposed to disclose this information two weeks prior to the deadline because it was a surprise to everyone else including some Chinese sports officials who were less than pleased. Harbin had made no prior announcement firstly because they didn’t need to and secondly because they may have been trying to circumvent some political wrangling.
So that brings us to 2020 – could there be any undisclosed or last-minute bids?
Most likely fitting this scenario would be a bid from Africa. There is wide belief that after Rio finally landed the Games for South America that the IOC would want to go to the final available continent able to host the Games for the first time.
Some cities in South Africa seem capable – and after hosting the 2010 FIFA World Cup – they have the experience. But after months of indecision, the South African Olympic Committee decided to pass on a 2020 bid and pursue the Olympics at a later date, perhaps 2024.
Certainly other African nations took note. They know that if South Africa bids and wins in 2024 that it may be decades before the Games return to Africa. But now, for 2020, there is a small window-of-opportunity to launch a pre-emptive bid and steal the show from their neighbours to the south. If they were to submit a “secret” bid, there would be no time for South Africa to react and they would have Africa to themselves for the campaign.
And it is no secret that other African nations are interested.
So here’s our list of cities that may have secret plans.
Casablanca, Morocco
Moroccan sport minister Moncef Belkhayat said earlier this year that Casablanca would bid for 2020, 2024 or 2028 – so the interest and planning already exists. If he really wants to win the Games in this timeframe, now is the time to bid.
Additionally, influential IOC member Nawal El Moutawakel hails from Casablanca and she would be an excellent ambassador for a Moroccan bid. She has headed past bid evaluation commissions and would clearly understand this “secret” strategy.
In place of Casablanca, if for some reason a bid there wasn’t feasible – Rabat, Morocco has expressed interest and could represent instead.
Abuja, Nigeria
A bid from Abuja wouldn’t be ideal, and probably wouldn’t win – but that wouldn’t stop the sport-hungry nation from trying.
Abuja bid for the 2014 Commonwealth Games losing to Glasgow, Scotland. Nigeria bid for the 2013 African Cup of Nations football tournament and lost to Libya. However, Libya was forced to relinquish the rights to host that the tournament after civil war broke out earlier in the year and Nigeria is reportedly trying to become the replacement host nation.
Failing a bid from Abuja, Lagos – a Nigerian city that has expressed interest in hosting the 2018 Youth Olympic Games – could step in and go for the Summer Games instead.
Nairobi, Kenya
The Kenyan Prime Minister has repeatedly claimed that it is Kenya’s right to host the Olympic Games based on the fact that his nation leads Africa in the all-time Olympic medal standings. Officials have talked about bids for the Commonwealth Games and the 2016 Olympic Games in the past, but none have ever materialized. Could this be the time?
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Outside of Africa, there are other potential last-minute bidders.
Baku, Azerbaijan
After failing to make the shortlist in the 2016 bid campaign, Baku vowed to return again and bid for the 2020 Games. However, just days ago officials revealed that no decision had been made to move forward with a 2020 bid and that any decision before the September 1 deadline was unlikely.
But if Baku officials get the itch in the final hours – perhaps we’ll get an unexpected surprise.
[Editor’s Note: Baku officials got the itch and announced that they were bidding hours after this report was published]
Berlin, Germany
Munich in Germany just completed a losing but impressive campaign to host the 2018 Olympic Winter Games. The city may have aspirations to try again for the 2022 Winter Games.
But do officials from the German Olympic Sports Confederation (DOSB) have their eyes on the Summer prize instead?
Leipzig was Germany’s controversial choice to bid for the 2012 Games that were lost to London. Berlin’s Mayor said in July that he wanted his city to seek the 2020 Games but the DOSB said there wasn’t time for a domestic campaign before the IOC application deadline (and since the Munich 2018 campaign wasn’t over until July 6 – there was no opportunity for an earlier start).
If officials have worked quickly behind the scenes to avoid the domestic phase and nominate Berlin directly – perhaps an application is already in to the IOC.
But don’t count on this. It is rumoured that DOSB President Thomas Bach will seek the IOC Presidency in 2013. If so, he would not want a German Olympic bid to distract voting IOC members who typically will not award multiple opportunities to a single nation at one time.
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The following bids are unlikely, but are interesting to think about.
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Kuala Lumpur last bid for the 2008 Olympic Games that were won by Beijing but the city never made it to the final short list. The dream sparked a nation that wanted more after hosting the 1998 Commonwealth Games; and the public has been pushing for another Games bid.
The city has experience hosting international events and is on the Formula One World Championship circuit.
There has been no recent talk about a Kuala Lumpur 2020 bid but expect an Olympic bid from Malaysia some time in the near future.
Havana, Cuba
After hosting the 1991 Pan American Games and the 1992 IAAF World Cup – Havana believed it was ready to host the Olympic Games. So the eager city bid to host the Games in 2008 and 2012, missing the shortlist both times.
During the two bids, Havana remained low-key without much ceremony or promotion. 2012 bid officials maintained that Havana deserved to win on its sports merits alone and marketing wasn’t necessary. So an unadvertised bid for 2020 may not be such a surprise.
The overly-diplomatic IOC President Jacques Rogge said Havana was a strong competitor in the 2012 campaign, and while there has been much change in the island nation since its previous bids, the desire and support still exist. Unfortunately the infrastructure and experience are lacking – so any bid from Havana would be only a symbolic gesture.
