“I cannot predict it since I don’t know how the IOC members will vote. But my gut feeling tells me that it will be very close. Perhaps it will come down to a difference of say ten votes, or maybe less”.
Rogge was being questioned by the media in Singapore on his predictions for the 2012 Summer Olympic Games host city election, which takes place on July 6.
He added that the IOC finds itself in an unprecedented situation. “The IOC is, for perhaps the first time in its history, presented with five cities all of whom are absolutely capable of hosting excellent Games. This, on the one hand, means that we are in a very fortunate position. On the other it means the decision of which city to elect is arguably more difficult to make than ever”.
He said that it definitely won’t be like Beijing who won ahead of Toronto with more than 30 votes difference. “It might be something like 1993, when Sydney was elected ahead of Beijing with only two votes difference, that tells you how close it can be sometimes”.
He said the IOC has taken all necessary measures to avoid corruption. “We have a highly reputable ethics commission. We have very strict and clear rules for bidding. I’m quite sure everything will be absolutely clean”.
The bid cities believe a significant number of IOC members remain undecided. Much could depend on the candidates’ final presentations to the IOC and the order in which cities are eliminated in the round-by-round balloting.
Canadian IOC member Dick Pound said of Paris, “if I were betting on it, I’d say it’s theirs to lose. It would be London’s to win. It depends whose the best on the day”.
But Gerhard Heiberg, an IOC executive board member from Norway and co-organizer of the 1994 Winter Games in Lillehammer, said he isn’t convinced that Paris is still the frontrunner. “Some months ago I felt that, but today I’m not so sure any more”.
Some members may vote on the technical merits of the bids, while others may vote based on emotion, sentiment, geography, politics or self-interest.
Reports say the final 45-minute presentations that will feature emotive videos should carry more weight than usual because members were barred from visiting the bid cities under ethics rules enacted after the Salt Lake City scandal.
While many believe Moscow will be eliminated first, reports say the Russian capital could benefit from sympathy votes that would put others – mainly New York – in potential danger.
John Furlong, head of Vancouver 2012 knows that this can happen. Vancouver went in as the big favourite but only squeaked past little-known PyeongChang South Korea 56-53 in the final round.
Furlong said, “members want to be nice, but you never really are sure about your support. You can have all the support you need and none of it. I’m just glad I’m only a spectator this time”.
