GamesBids.com today released an update to BidIndex for the 2012 Summer Olympic Games bid. The update comprehends new information acquired since the last BidIndex update in July. This is the final update prior to next week’s anticipated release of the five candidate city Bid Books – complete bid dossiers prepared by the bid committees that cover 17 themes and contain specific data as requested by the International Olympic Committee (IOC).
Madrid marked the strongest gain of 0.60 points to 61.91, enough to move the bid ahead of London after the British bid dropped 0.24 points to 61.08. Updated fundamentals such as public and financial support and updated venue plans accounted for much of the change.
Paris continues with a strong lead despite the marginal gain of 0.12 to 66.51. The French bid has many positive characteristics including recent strong bid campaigns and successful hosting of other sports events.
New York dropped further back after losing 0.91 points to 58.89. Eroded public support caused in part by the stadium controversy, and possible backlash over the recent presidential election results were a factor in this result.
Moscow is still well off the pace after gaining 0.40 to 50.28. The Russian bid continues to campaign strongly amid new security fears and the short time-span since the 1980 Moscow Games that both pose seemingly insurmountable obstacles.
The next BidIndex update will follow after the release of the Bid Books and will factor in information from these documents. Further updates will occur later in the campaign surrounding IOC inspection visits and technical reports.
While the deadline for the submission of the Bid Books is Monday, the IOC has requested that the bid committees do not release these documents to the public until they have been examined and approved. It is expected that the IOC will approve the documents by next Wednesday, November 17. GamesBids.com will make these documents available on the Web site as they are released.
In 2003, several reporters eagerly awaited the release of the Salzburg 2010 Winter Games bid book at a press conference only to be disappointed when the IOC release approval arrived by fax several kilometres away in a bid committee office. Distribution was delayed a few hours until officials were able to retrieve the fax.
BidIndex is a model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to others in the past – and possibly gauge it’s ultimate success. Further updates to BidIndex could occur as new information becomes available.
BidIndex is not intended to rate the bids based on technical quality, but on how the bids will perform based on IOC voting patterns. History has proven that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geo-politics usually have a significant impact.
Bid Change Score
Paris (-0.12) 66.51
Madrid 0.60 61.91
London (-0.24) 61.08
New York (-0.91) 58.89
Moscow 0.40 50.28