GamesBids.com today released an update to BidIndex for the 2012 Summer Olympic Games. The update comprehends new information and developments that have occured since the last release in February and is the first to include the questionnaire response of Leipzig.
A group of six strong bids continue to separate themselves from three challenged bids, possibly suggesting the look of the shortlist to be named by the International Olympic committee (IOC) on Tuesday.
The strongest gain was posted by Leipzig (up 3.01 to 48.47) based on positive information revealed in the mini bid-book. However Leipzig’s overall score is still low and the city may not make the IOC’s list.
Paris (down 0.25 to 63.57), Rio de Janeiro (up 0.42 to 62.22), London (down 0.49 to 61.48) and New York (up 0.19 to 60.15) all scored over 60 on the index indicating they are very similar to past winning bids and revealing how strong and competitive the 2012 field will be.
Istanbul (down 0.29 to 59.46) and Madrid (down 0.49 to 57.48) follow very closely but cannot be dismissed as legitimate competitors in this campaign unless the IOC fails to accept them after the evaluation. Moscow (up 0.24 to 45.82) and Havana (up 2.46 to 36.40) round of the list with scores that indicate they will not likely win the 2012 campaign.
All of the BidIndex scores have been “halted” pending the results of the evaluation report and shortlisting. After the shortlist announcement, rejected bids will be delisted and accepted bids will be rescored based on new data, and the updated index will resume by the end of May.
The IOC shortlist is designed to accept applications from only those bids that exceed certain technical benchmarks set by an evaluation committee. BidIndex is a model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to others in the past – and possibly gauge it’s ultimate success. Further updates to BidIndex will occur as new information becomes available.
BidIndex is not intended to rate the bids based on technical quality, but on how the bids will perform based on IOC voting patterns. History has proven that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geo-politics usually have a significant impact.
Full BidIndex details can be found on the BidIndex page or contact BidIndex@GamesBids.com for more information.