BidIndex – the Olympic bid rating system developed by GamesBids.com and used to measure an Olympic bid’s potential for success – will have its 2020 edition premiered Monday.
The widely acclaimed mathematical model has been used successfully to gauge the past six Olympic bid campaigns and has accurately illustrated whether short-listed bids were one of the leaders, or just an also-ran.
This complex model is a result of months of research and development by analysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bid process. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and inside sources as well as GamesBids.com’s extensive Olympic bid archive.
While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid, BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bid and estimates how it might compete based on past voting patterns. While BidIndex is not intended to rank the bids, the previous two bid winners selected by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) were also the cities that had the highest BidIndex scores.
“The race for 2020 is very volatile and will be unpredictable,” explained Rob Livingstone, Producer of GamesBids.com and creator of BidIndex.
“Already Rome has dropped out of the race and Madrid is feeling the pressure of the economic crisis. Doha is proposing untraditional Games dates and Istanbul is under fire for pursuing two major events at once.
“It will be interesting to see how BidIndex cuts through the spin to portray what’s really going on.”
Adding even more emphasis to this initial release is the fact that the previous two Olympic bid winners, PyeongChang 2018 and Rio 2016, both came out of the gate with the top BidIndex score.
“Initial scores are important and Monday’s leader will set the tone of the race,” Livingstone said, “but we’re expecting things to change significantly throughout the race, as they have done in the past.”
Bids from Baku in Azerbaijan, Doha in Qatar, Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo have been accepted by the IOC and will be listed in BidIndex 2020. Additionally, since Rome had completed an application file prior to dropping from the race, GamesBids.com will be publishing the Italian city’s initial score for comparison purposes. The IOC will declare candidates next summer and make its final decision September 7, 2013 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
BidIndex has inspired imitations but none can match the history, research and depth of analysis that goes into this rating system that has been developed by long-time professionals in the sports event bidding industry. There are those who publish personal opinions and bookmakers who run markets based on general public opinion – but neither of those can accurately depict what about 100 IOC members are thinking when it’s time to vote.
You can see the full 2020 details when they are released Monday, May 14 on GamesBids.com, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook to get notified immediately. To contact us send an email to feedback (at) gamesbids.com.