GamesBids.com today released an update to BidIndex for the 2012 Summer Olympic Games. This is the first update since the bid committees submitted their mandatory questionnaire responses to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) on January 15. These documents have been made public by all bids except Leipzig and Havana.
There continues to be a clear division between bids that rate as serious contenders and those that seem to face insurmountable challenges.
New York posted the strongest gain (up 3.56 to 59.96) due to compelling elements in its plan including accommodations, security and a detailed “Olympic X” venue concept. Madrid (up 2.75 to 58.07) and Istanbul (up 2.50 to 59.75) also posted favorable gains based on the strong technical plans and concepts revealed in their responses to the IOC. These bids had already prepared plans in the the past; Istanbul for their 2008 bid and New York and Madrid to win their national nominations.
Paris continues to boast the highest BidIndex score in the field (up 1.99 to 63.82) by building on plans first presented for their 2008 bid – but improved upon for their current bid. The venues, transportation plan and other key elements are reasonable and achievable and the use of several temporary venues will be applauded by the IOC.
London (up 1.90 to 61.97) revealed an exciting and imaginative concept with interesting venues and strong support. However, the requirement of major investment in transportation infrastructure poses a potential risk.
Rio de Janeiro (up 1.03 to 61.80) has the benefit of geography on its side representing South America as an untapped market for the IOC and being favorably located for United States television. Rio added a very compact venue plan to its offering and hopes to leverage infrastructure improvements already being made for the 2007 Pan Am Games. Rio will need to improve its accomodation plan and take a serious look at security in order to fully convince the IOC to visit in 2012.
Having hosted the Games in 1980, Moscow (down 0.20 to 45.58) would still need major improvements to be ready to do it again in 2012 – and even so, it may be too soon for the IOC to consider a return. Moscow’s questionnaire response lacks the detail necessary to address how these improvements will be made and would likely be a risky choice for the IOC.
Leipzig’s full questionnaire response was unavailable, however known elements of their bid were used to formulate its BidIndex rating (up 0.72 to 45.46). Leipzig’s biggest challenge is its size – much smaller than most cities selected to host the Games.
Many of the technical elements of Havana’s bid (down 0.64 to 33.94) are unavailable. Cuba lacks much of the infrastructure required to successfully host the Olympics. Being a relatively small country, taking on a project of this size and scope would be a formidable task.
BidIndex is a model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to others in the past – and possibly gauge it’s ultimate success. Further updates to BidIndex will occur as new information becomes available.
BidIndex is not intended to rate the bids based on technical quality, but on how the bids will perform based on IOC voting patterns. History has proven that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geo-politics usually have a significant impact.