About BidIndex

BidIndex WINTER 2022

CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
Almaty AMY 12/05 00.00 00.00 Up 0.00 00.00
Beijing BJG 12/05 00.00 00.00 Up 0.00 00.00
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES:  12-05-14 BidIndex 2022 Ticker Created (AMY, BJG)

BidIndex Information

BidIndex Description
BidIndex Definitions
BidIndex Archive – BidIndex for previous bids
BidIndex 2020
BidIndex 2018
BidIndex 2016
BidIndex 2014
BidIndex 2012
BidIndex 2010
BidIndex USA for 2012

BidIndex News
BidIndex Helps Us Keep Score (More Info.)

For further questions or additional information please click here.

 

BidIndex Description

BidIndex LogoBidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids – and possibly gauge its potential success.

This complex model is a result of months of research and development by analysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bid process. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and inside sources.

The primary model looks at the actual Olympic bids voted on by the International Olympic Committee. GamesBids.com BidIndex will also analyze selected bids with our National Olympic Committee (NOC) model. These are qualifying bids conducted by the NOC’s (e.g. The United States Olympic Committee’s selection for the 2012 bid).

While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid, BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bid and projects how it might compete based on past voting patterns. Since the IOC does not always pick the best quality bid, BidIndex does not predict the winner or rank the bids. It is designed to measure the competitiveness of each bid on a static scale.

BidIndex was reviewed in the March 2004 edition of Significance Magazine, a publication by the Royal Statistical Society.

What is BidIndex?
BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids – and possibly gauge its potential success. The model was developed by observing historical trends and results of previous bids.BidIndex numbers can be theoretically used to compare competing bids and the relative strength of bids held in different years (e.g. to compare Paris 2008 with Paris 2012). A higher BidIndex indicates a greater chance of being elected.

Why BidIndex?
It has been observed in the past the IOC members do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often results are unpredictable. GamesBids.com wanted to find a way to compare Olympic Bids and normalize the results. BidIndex takes bid quality into account, but also evaluates other important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public support and other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters. These results will help our readers gain an understanding into the relative strengths of the bids.

Does BidIndex work?
While no one can guarantee the results of an election, BidIndex will tell you which bids have more of the qualities of successful bids from the past. A highBidIndex number does not necessarily indicate a high quality bid, but a bid similar to other successful bids. When the model is applied to the 2008 bid, these results were obtained based on information a day before the vote:

Bid City BidIndex Round 1
Votes
Round 2
Votes
Beijing 75.44 44 56
Toronto 63.79 20 22
Paris 58.71 15 18
Istanbul 53.94 17 9
Osaka 53.81 6 -

Although most analysts rated the quality of the Paris and Toronto bids to be higher than Beijing’s, Beijing was successful. BidIndex projects this result.

What causes a BidIndex number to change?
BidIndex numbers change when either the fundamentals of a bid change, a competing bid changes, a competing bid either enters or drops from the competition, or the election fundamentals change. For example, as time goes on a bid may increase government support, lose public support or the IOC may release information such as an evaluation report. These kinds of things affect the day-to-day dynamics of a bid and result in a change of the BidIndex. Early in an election cycle, fluctuations may be more dramatic as new information comes out and categories in the model are filled. Numbers are more accurate as the election day is approached. Occasionally, the BidIndex model may be modified which will also be reflected.

When are BidIndex numbers updated?
BidIndex is updated when fundamentals cause the numbers to change. This can happen in hours or in weeks, depending on how things change. Expect numbers to change more frequently when the selection process begins.

When does a city get listed in BidIndex?
A city gets listed in BidIndex once it has become an NOC confirmed candidate and there is sufficiant data available to generate a BidIndex number.

BidIndex Definitions

City = Applicant City

Symbol = A 3 letter short form of the city

Status = Current listing status

Prelisted = Data is being accumulated for the city to create new BidIndex

Delisted = Bid has ended because (a) city did not make short-list, (b) city dropped out or (c) bid election is over

Halted = Index is waiting to be updated due to significant fundamental change such as the release of an evaluation report or an IOC announcement

MM/DD = The month and day of the last Index change for this city

High = All-time Index high for this City

Low = All-time Index low for this City

Change = Value change from previous Index listing

Index = The City’s current BidIndex value

BidIndex Archive

BidIndex ARCHIVE

CITY BID SYM NOTE HIGH LOW DATE FINAL
SUMMER 2020 ELECTION – 09/07/13
Istanbul S2020 IST LEL 61.96 60.20 2/09/13 61.45
Madrid S2020 MAD LEL 58.76 55.10 2/09/13 58.76
Tokyo S2020 TKY WON 62.31 59.92 2/09/13 62.14
Baku S2020 BKU ELM 43.66 43.66 5/14/12 43.66
Doha S2020 DHA ELM 53.08 53.08 5/14/12 53.08
WINTER 2018 ELECTION – 07/06/11
Annecy W2018 ACY LEL 55.03 51.44 7/06/11 54.86
Munich W2018 MUN LEL 65.83 61.64 7/06/11 65.83
PyeongChang W2018 PCH WON 66.29 62.40 7/06/11 66.17
SUMMER 2016 ELECTION – 10/02/09
Chicago S2016 CHI LEL 61.24 58.78 10/02/09 61.24
Madrid S2016 MAD LEL 59.50 57.80 10/02/09 57.80
Rio de Janeiro S2016 RIO WON 61.61 59.73 10/02/09 61.42
Tokyo S2016 TKY LEL 61.41 59.20 10/02/09 59.02
Baku S2016 BKU ELM 36.85 36.43 6/04/08 36.43
Doha S2016 DHA ELM 53.46 52.83 6/04/08 53.46
Prague S2016 PRG ELM 37.59 37.17 6/04/08 37.17
WINTER 2014 ELECTION – 7/05/07
PyeongChang W2014 PCH LEL 64.99 55.72 7/04/07 64.99
Salzburg W2014 SAL LEL 65.35 60.63 7/04/07 62.62
Sochi W2014 JAC WON 63.17 56.71 7/04/07 63.17
Almaty W2014 AMY ELM 42.28 40.98 6/22/06 42.28
Borjomi W2014 BRJ ELM 31.36 30.38 6/22/06 31.36
Jaca W2014 JAC ELM 52.68 50.57 6/22/06 52.68
Sofia W2014 SFA ELM 47.26 46.72 6/22/06 46.72
SUMMER 2012 ELECTION – 07/06/05
London S2012 LON WON 65.07 60.07 7/06/05 65.07
Madrid S2012 MAD LEL 61.41 55.32 7/06/05 61.22
Moscow S2012 MOS LEL 50.28 45.58 7/06/05 49.58
New York S2012 NYC LEL 60.15 56.40 7/06/05 57.59
Paris S2012 PAR LEL 66.63 61.83 7/06/05 66.18
Havana S2012 HVA ELM 36.40 33.94 5/18/04 36.40
Istanbul S2012 IST ELM 59.75 57.25 5/18/04 59.46
Leipzig S2012 LPZ ELM 48.47 44.74 5/18/04 48.47
Rio de Janeiro S2012 RDJ ELM 62.22 60.77 5/18/04 62.22
WINTER 2010 ELECTION – 7/02/03
Pyeongchang W2010 PCH LEL 60.12 40.44 7/02/03 60.05
Salzburg W2010 SAL LEL 66.82 45.21 7/02/03 66.82
Vancouver W2010 VAN WON 65.31 48.85 7/02/03 65.31
Andorra la Vella W2010 ALV ELM 49.06 41.29 9/05/02 41.29
Berne W2010 BRN DRP 61.13 54.03 9/27/02 56.56
Harbin W2010 HBN ELM 40.70 36.48 9/05/02 40.70
Jaca W2010 JAC ELM 50.51 46.04 9/05/02 48.73
Sarajevo W2010 SAR ELM 31.35 26.70 9/05/02 26.70
USA 2012 NOMINATION – 11/02/02
Houston US2012 HOU ELM 68.11 63.22 8/29/02 68.11
New York US2012 NYC WON 69.31 62.85 11/02/02 62.85
San Francisco US2012 SFO LEL 69.05 61.88 11/02/02 66.64
Washington US2012 WAS ELM 68.42 62.48 8/29/02 68.16
SUMMER 2008 ELECTION – 7/13/01
Beijing S2008 BJG WON 7/13/01 75.44
Istanbul S2008 IST LEL 7/13/01 53.94
Osaka S2008 OSA LEL 7/13/01 53.81
Paris S2008 PAR LEL 7/13/01 58.71
Toronto S2008 TOR LEL 7/13/01 63.79

DRP = voluntarily dropped out of race; ELM = eliminated by bid process; LEL = lost election; WON = won host city bid

 

BidIndex 2020

BidIndex SUMMER 2020

CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
Istanbul IST 09/02 61.96 60.20 Down 0.51 61.45
Madrid MAD 09/02 58.76 55.10 Up 2.27 58.76
Tokyo TKY 09/02 62.31 59.92 Down 0.17 62.14
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES:  01-30-12 BidIndex 2020 Ticker Created (BKU, DHA, IST, MAD, ROM, TKY) | 02-15-12 ROM Delisted | 05-14-12 BidIndex Released | 05-23-12 BKU, DHA Delisted | 02-28-13 Update (IST, MAD, TKY) | 05-27-13 Update (IST, MAD, TKY) 09-02-13 Update (IST, MAD, TKY)

BidIndex 2018

BidIndex WINTER 2018

CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
Annecy ACY HLT 55.03 51.44 1.01 54.86
Munich MUN HLT 65.83 61.64 0.84 65.83
PyeongChang PCH HLT 66.29 62.40 0.12 66.17
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES:  10-16-09 BidIndex 2018 Ticker Created (ACY, MUN, PCH) | 04-16-10 BidIndex Released | 01-10-11 BidIndex Updated | 04-06-11BidIndex Updated | 05-19-11 BidIndex Updated | 06-29-11 BidIndex Updated | 07-06-11 BidIndex halted for election |


BidIndex 2016

BidIndex SUMMER 2016

CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
Chicago CHI HLT 61.24 58.78 1.23 61.24
Madrid MAD HLT 59.50 57.80 0.00 57.80
Rio de Janeiro RIO HLT 61.61 59.73 0.19 61.42
Tokyo TKY HLT 61.41 59.20 0.18 59.02
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES: 10-01-09 BidIndex Halted Prior to election| 09-28-09 BidIndex Update | 09-10-09 BidIndex Update | 03-23-09 BidIndex Update | 11-05-08 BidIndex Update | 05-29-08 BidIndex Update | 05-29-08 BKU, DHA, PRG Halted after being eliminated | 05-29-08 BidIndex 2016 Update | 02-14-08 BidIndex 2016 Released | 01-11-08 BidIndex 2016 Ticker Created (BKU, CHI, DHA, MAD, PRG, RIO, TKY) |


BidIndex 2014

BidIndex WINTER 2014 – FINAL 

 
CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
PyeongChang PCH 06/27 64.99 55.72 00.09 64.99
Salzburg SAL 06/27 65.35 60.63 01.31 62.62
Sochi SCH 06/27 63.17 56.71 02.22 63.17
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted,DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES: 06-27-07 BidIndex 2014 Update After Evaluation Report | 04-03-07 BidIndex 2014 Update After Bid Books/Visits | 01-09-07 BidIndex 2014 Update Ahead of Bid Book Release | 06-22-06 AMY, BRJ, JAC, SFA Halted after cut | 06-20-06 BidIndex 2014 Updated Ahead of Short-list | 02-28-06 BidIndex 2014 Released | 02-01-06 Bidindex 2014 Ticker Created (ALM, BRJ, JAC, PCH, SAL, SCH, SFA) 


BidIndex 2012

BidIndex SUMMER 2012 – FINAL -

CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
London LON 07/04 65.07 60.07 0.19 65.07
Madrid MAD 07/04 61.41 55.32 0.19 61.22
Moscow MOS 07/04 50.28 45.58 0.00 49.58
New York NYC 07/04 60.15 56.40 0.54 57.59
Paris PAR 07/04 66.63 61.83 0.00 66.18
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES: 07-06-05 BidIndex CLOSED | 07-04-05 BidIndex Update/NYC RESUMED | 06-15-05 BidIndex Update/NYC HLT | 05-10-05 BidIndex Update | 11-12-04BidIndex Update | 06-17-04 BidIndex Update/RESUMED | 05-18-04 HVA,IST,LPZ,RDJ – DLD | 05-16-04 BidIndex Update/HLT for shortlist | 02-24-04 BidIndex Update | 01-11-04 BidIndex 2012 Released 


BidIndex 2010

BidIndex WINTER 2010 – FINAL

CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
Pyeongchang PCH HLT 60.12 40.44 0.07 60.05
Salzburg SAL HLT 66.82 45.21 0.27 66.82
Vancouver VAN HLT 65.31 48.85 0.36 65.31


BidIndex United States 2012

BidIndex UNITED STATES 2012 – FINAL

CITY SYM STAT HIGH LOW * CHG INDEX
New York NYC HLT 69.31 62.85 3.46 62.85
San Francisco SFO HLT 69.05 61.88 2.41 66.64
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